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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 26, 2012 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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>> we had that stat earlier on in the day with david, for the s&p 500, on average, 1928, the greatest december gains in the last few days of the month, of course, it could be all scuttled by the fiscal cliff. my guess is, in past decembers, they have not that kind of thing to deal with in the way we do right now. >> president comes back to washington, he'll get on a flight in just a couple of hours, we'll be back at 7:00 east coast time in washington tomorrow, assuming the weather allows air force one to get through all of that. in many teen time. and then, presumably, maybe some of the negotiations can get back on track at that time. in the meantime, the dow down 24 points today. that's it for us. thank you for watching. >> and "fast money" starts right now. stay tuned to cnbc. >> we'll see you tomorrow. live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. retail wreck. santa delivered coal for most today. should you be betting on a
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bounce back? the global race to print money is on. and we've got the best ways to play japan's easy money. and 2013 trades. top picks in an uncertain world also "fast money" goes fast forward into next year. first, to our top stories. five days to go until the fiscal cliff and the heat is turning up on both sides of the aisle. house speaker john boehner says the senate needs to act first. meantime, just about 40 minutes ago, tim geithner said the u.s. is simply running out of money. let's get the latest on this game of chicken from c nbc's chief political correspondent, john harwood. john? >> melissa, i want to bring you up to date on the fiscal cliff developments. first of all, as you mentioned, secretary geithner has informed the senate that the united states government will hit its debt ceiling on monday. that is december 31st. now, that doesn't mean that anything happens immediately, because the treasury can take various steps to postpone the moment of reckoning, probably a
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couple of months. it's still significant. that's an effort to pressure congress. secondly, the house republicans have met, leadership has met, sent a letter to democrats saying the house has acted, now it's up to the senate to act. that's, of course, the m theic-controlled senate which has no intention of taking up that house bill, which would extend all of the bush tax cuts. the president wants to only extent cuts for incomes under $250,000. senate democratic leadership aide tells me there's a 50/50 chance for a mini deal, temporary extension of the tax cuts, before january 1st, but we haven't seen any progress on it yet. president obama is coming back early as you mentioned, from his vacation in hawaii, but a senior white house official tells me they have seen no signs yet of progress toward a deal, so, everybody is going to have to wait for a couple of days. >> so, there's no indication at this point that there are any scheduled meetings tomorrow or anything to that effect, press
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conferences, news conferences to update the american people on what is going on in d.c.? >> everybody's got telephones, so, there's doubtless conversations going on. senate doesn't get back until late tomorrow. president gets back late tomorrow. the house is not back, but all of the leadership types, all the important players in any potential resolution of this are going to be in contact with one another and the likelihood that they will be in contact increases with every passing hour. >> john, stick around. i want to bring in anthony, who is on the desk here tonight. he was on the finance committee for mitt romney in his presidential bid. and what your sources are telling you is what in terms of if we reach a deal. >> i've talked to paul ryan, scott brown and a few of the other republicans and i do think that there is a deal there, and it looks like the threshold number on the taxes will be about $500,000, and so, there's a little bit of a grudge going on right now.
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one theory is, they allow it to go over the cliff, taxes go up for everybody, the sequestration happens and then they go out and say, well, we lowered your taxes from where the cliff was and we restored cuts from where the se question trags was. that seems to be what's going on now as it relates to the game theory, which i think is sort of sad and an indictment of both political parties, in terms of letting us be in the position that we're in right now. but what it means for investors is, there will be a lot of money on the sidelines until we get this resolved. >> right. all right, john, we're going to let you go now. john harwood with the latest. we have the markets very uncertain. what do you make of today's action? buying or selling today's market? >> i'm still sort of in -- i'm in the long-term lower camp but i'm in the short-term buyer camp. i think something gets done. and the headline is worth probably 25-point rally in the s&p. that's what you have to do, is make a decision and fade that
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move. but in the meantime, i don't put a lot of emphasis on what happened today. this obviously, vacation short week, volumes are light, but as long as we stay around this 1425 level, i'm casually optimistic. >> to that point, josh, you made the point that you closed your books today, so, a lot of players are, in fact, on the sidelines officially for 2012. >> right. other than a handful of tax related things, there's nothing that we feel compelled to do, given the fact it's what we call garbage time right now. the outcome of the year is already known. people trading heavily are the people that are forced to. and so you tend to see this odd mix of stocks start to bubble up in the last week, typically low volume, high beta, things that can be juiced. it's just not a game that we play on the asset management side. >> i agree with josh. and the things we know right now are, number one, we know the president's coming back and he's coming back because they are facing some very dire choices right now.
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i do think anthony's right. we're going to be driving off this cliff. it's not going to be a drop, you know, of thousands of feet or anything like that. this will be like going off a very high curb, in other words, we're going to fall and the car is going to feel it, but we're not going to crash after this. instead, because of what tim geithner said and because of what the treasury can do, they will extend out the time before we hit that debt limit, which will be next monday, but before we feel it, it will be several months down the road. so, in other words, we are guaranteeing ourselves, i think, melissa, very, very small deals, not big deals, and, again, to anthony's point, i think what the republicans are looking for here is the opportunity to say, we brought you tax cuts back from where they were under -- >> what reese the bottom line in terms of our bias? buy or sell? >> i would sell, both hands. when we hit january, we are going to be hitting a wall with all the folks that are going to want to take those tax losses. they're not taking them now. they're not matching up -- none
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of our clients are matching up tax losses right now. they're matching up gains. so, when that wall hits in 2013, that could be ugly,s personally if the fighting in washington gets even worse than it is right now. >> melissa, one point that i think is really important to bring into this, there's so much, the term uncertain tip has been used to death. meanwhile, we're within a couple of percentage points of the year high, multiyear highs, in fact. volatility, aside from a little blip today, took the year after, almost the entire year. if you look at the january barometer, this was a very paint by numbers year. really strong start in the begin, we faded in may, like we do each summer. we had the fall rally. this was a very conventional third year of the presidential cycle tiype of year. i don't really think uncertain tip has had that much of an impact when all is said and done. >> complacency is really the key here. so many of the charts are circulated on the street, but basically not nearly at the levels that we've seen it in the
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past in other uncertain times. we've had the european debt crisis, we've had, you know, we've had the elections, we've had super storm sandy, we've had so many events, fiscal clifr, of course, being rerated by s&p. >> but the number one thing we're not talking about is the fed. you have this unbelievable accommodating monetary policy and a signal from the fed they're going to continue that to the tune of a trillion dollars a year. so, that's why the things has been conventional. this has been anything but a conventional year. if you didn't have that level of stimulus, i think the market would have gone a little sideways this year. >> right. let's talk about the big trades in today's session, from trash to treasure. can some of 2012's biggest losers be the best bets for 2013. this is, in fact, what we saw in today's session. these are some of the worst performers of the year, but in today's market, today's session, they actually led the markets. research in motion was a head scratcher of a move. >> the research in motion is very interesting, because i
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thought the move was over last week when it had that, seemed to be a blowoff short-term top then you saw the down flush and then today, to me, unexpectedly up the way it is. i think, for me, there's another opportunity to sell this thing. i don't think it's here. but i think the coal names, and pete and john speak to them, the relative strength in the coal names, understanding they've been obliterated over the last six months, was what stuck out to me today. >> and that was a china story, too. >> yeah, foot on the brake, hard, out of china, and that's why these coal names were so depressed. i don't think they come back, guy, but not come racing back and it's all because of the shale plays and that's why i think energy produced out of there is going to put a cap on how much of a rally we're going to see out of coal. >> how about jcpenney? anybody willing to take a bet? we had an analyst on "squawk on the street" on monday who visited stores over the weekend, said, you know what, the traffic
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was good. they went back to their promotion always and brought people back in. >> until there's an actual turn in the data, i don't care what a store looks like on a tuesday. i can't invest based on that. when we look at the data, technically, the stock's been acting a little better. there's a ton of shorts in this thing, though. that's hard to go by and there's just not turn yet. i'd rather buy the thing higher when there's some sense that the business has stabilized. i don't want to buy it here where we really have no idea when these metrics bottom. so, this is not something where i feel like i have any kind of edge over anyone else. i'm content to let it pass. >> i'll just offer the contrary view to what josh is saying. this is -- to his point, there's a ton of shorts in this name. they seem to have gotten the strategy figured out now. which is a hybrid strategy of the new age thing that they were talking about earlier in the year. and the old age thing, which are
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these frpromotions, so, any positive news from here could lead to some upside in short covering. that's just the other side of what josh is saying. >> let's check in with mary, at the market flash desk, taking a closer look at one of today's biggest tech losers. >> that would be apple, which closed down 1.4% in today's trade. of course, stock has been the subject of a lot of tax law selling you be today, there appears to be a supply chain glitch, having to do with the touch screens that are used in the ipad mini. as a result, apple is likely to ship only a million ipad minis in the third quarter. it was expected to be 10 to 12 million. in the first quarter, 13 million of those ipad minis will be shipped at that time. melissa, back to you. >> mary, thank you. what does the chart tell you, guy, about apple, at this point? >> i felt like the momentum was back with it last week when it was trading in the 530 range.
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it wanted to push back to 550 and it falls off. i don't want to say falls off the cliff, but pushing back down towards this 500 level. so -- it pains me to say it, and i typically don't do it. here at 512, we're sort of no man's land. if you want to get back in it, hope it flushes down with a 480 and maybe on the upside, if you can get a breakout. bull right here, you're flipping a coin. >> dr. j, for a long time, apple selling off because of tax selling. at this point, as we close the books on 2012 -- >> tax gain selling. >> exactly. can it be the fundamental story, finally catching up to apple? >> absolutely. and i think a lot of folks, you get that turnover because a lot of folks can get right back in, because, again, they don't have to worry about the work sale rule. they can get right back in. but nonetheless, it seems on every rally in the morning, melissa, it is hit by that tax gains selling that i'm talk about and perhaps those same folks are buying back into it in the afternoon, and then getting freaked out as the stock goes lower, into the end of the afternoon.
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so, whatever's going on in there, i like this story into 2013. i just don't like holding it now. i have no position in apple. >> josh brown, buyer or seller of apple? >> i'd be a buyer here. but i've been saying that since 560, 570. but i do think that the tax selling is having a huge impact on the stock. and i think the next earnings report, you probably would rather be long it than short it. >> got to take a break here. when we come back, the day's biggest pops and drops and we go inside the hottest global trade right now. but first, netflix unplugged. shares rallying, though the movie streaming provider saw outages on christmas eve. a street fight coming up on whether to buy or sell the stock. and just how hungry bargain shoppers? jane wells hitting the mall to find out. jane? >> melissa, we are going to talk to the shoppers behind the numbers to get the facts and how even men cannot deny the allure of brad pitt. we'll have that from la la land,
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after the break.
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welcome back to f"fast money." netflix might have woken up to coal in its christmas stocking. netflix's movie streaming service getting hit with an outage on christmas eve. for some customers, it lasted through the next morning. netflix blaming amazon's web servers for the glitch. the stock rallied today, but not everyone is a buyer. so, let's have a good old fashioned street fight, guy, the bull, going up against anthony, the bear. so, guy, start with the -- >> well, part of my argument, which, as you mentioned, on christmas eve, we had an out age and given netflix's history, one
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would have thought on a tape like today, you would have seen that stock down significantly. obviously it wasn't. it was higher. so, i use that as proof positive number one. also, remember back in early december, netflix and reed hastings got a wells notice. they shrugged that off as well. anthony will shoot these guys down on valuation and i agree, the valuation is ridiculous. i would push back, though, that the short interest indicates there might be a short covering rally left yet in this name. i also throw in the disney deal, which i think could be huge for these guys and they staved victory from the jaws of defeat with that. and the wild card, to me, continues to be kacarl. if you believe, it's giving a floor in the name. and i'm wrong below 84, and i understand that's a ways away from here, but i think the stock could be 105, 110. >> lots of cogent arguments, anthony. >> sounded good to me, but at 115 times earning, this thing is
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priced into 20, 25, or 2030 and, if you look at the competition, from amazon, from apple, the new i-tv stuff. netflix did a masterful job switching from the subscribe-based send out the dvd in the mail, but they've got a flood of competitors entering the space right now. guy is making a point about carl, but not every great investor is right about every situation and in this situation, i think it's going to be very hard for them to find a strategic buyer or acquisition candidate, someone to buy them at 115 times earnings. so, this stock will continue to trade down, melissa and i talked about the stock a year ago when it was in the low 200s. i said it was a disaster then and i think it's a disaster now. stay away from this stock. use the subscription service but get out of the way in terms of valuation. >> didn't mention the cost of acquisition of content. we don't even know what the terms of the deal is for disney.
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>> no, we don't. i'm sure when it comes do disney, at some point, they are going to have to -- i agree that probably is going to be some what costly for them. but to anthony's point, i think a 2 a $0 netflix a year or so ago is much different than it is now. and i think right now, i'm not saying the story isn't broken, because it probably is at some point broken and the barriers will prove to come mod tiz these guys, but i think for the trade, and you would have to admit this stock's had some fits and starts along the way and the starts always shake out the shorts. and i think that's what we're in the middle of now. i would agree with anthony long-term, but in the short-term, i still think this has to giddy-up on it. >> scott, what do you think? >> the company did the right thing, splitting the dvd and streaming businesses, i think they made a hash out of it and they angered subscribers. i think they are making a hash out of the business, if they are reliant on amazon, which is their number one competitor. amazon prime is probably their number one competitor and if
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netflix is dependent on their number one competitor for i.t. inf infrastructure, you have to wonder what they're thinking. all that did this weekend, or over christmas eve was anger a bunch of new potential subscribers who couldn't get onto streaming video. >> don't they scratch each other's back? samsung makes chips for apple. they are competitors. >> this is different. >> why? >> i think this is really different. people don't understand this yet, but they're going to start to understand that. you could have said up until recently they scratch each other's back. what amazon is doing with prime is a game-ender, in my opinion, on netflix. not overnight. but the fact that you can have an amazon prime subscription for, like, 80 bucks a year, and you can scream all the movies you want onto a kindle fire -- >> you're a bear? >> i've been a bear since -- >> yeah. >> i just don't understand why people would want to invest in controversy. you can trade this thing.
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i agree with guy, above 85, this thing is in bull mode. that's your line in the sand. it's a clear level where the game has changed before. fundamentally, it's just really a matter of time before apple gets more aggressive, amazon prime, i think, could be a knife in this company's heart. there's just too many negatives, the story is too unclear for me. >> how do you feel? finally won one of these things. >> why? >> scott and josh agree with you -- >> nuanced. >> yeah. >> i think it's -- >> nuanced. >> what do you mean, i finally -- because i typically lose? because i'm the jerk raising my hand. i got a call from lydia, our senior producer -- >> just because these guys voted with him doesn't mean it's going to work. the market is a weighing machine in the long-term, a voting machine only in the short-term. >> i agree with you, too. i agree with everyone. that's what i do. >> let's move on. christmas may be over, but that doesn't mean the mall madness has come to an end. jane wells joins us from the
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ever g grove shopper center in los angeles to explain. jane? >> hey, melissa. i would call today the return of the bling. in fact, i'm seeing a lot more returns than i am seeing gift card redemptions, but that's just what i'm seeing. liquidity services says returns are going to jump 37% this holiday, a huge jump. $63 billion worth of goods and it is also saying that according to them, the number one returned item is electronics. but what stores are getting hit here? >> little nordstrom's action. quick silver, ben sherman. most people know ben sherman from charlie sheen, but they're flannel. >> i got a nano and i traded it in for an ipod. >> we are returning to gap and j. crew. >> you came out on december 26th to buy serving forks? >> no, i came out to go to banana republic, which, on their answering machine said they
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opened at 9:00, they lie and opened a at 10:00. >> just returning. >> you're not going to buy anything? >> i'm trying to be good. >> did you get any gift cards? >> no, i didn't. >> is the economy on your mind? >> constantly. >> does the economy weigh into that at all? >> absolutely. >> everybody said that except for jack carl who may be my favorite shopper i found today, dos last minute shopping the day after the last minute. >> what do you have? >> i have a movado watch i had sized for my wrist and i bought some perfume for my wife. >> so, you came here just to have the watch sized and spent more. with us that part of the plan? >> yes. no, no, the plan was to have the watch sized and then i noticed brad pitt, big picture, and i realized i may have gone a little light with my wife on christmas and i thought i'd surprise her with a boxing day present. >> fiscal cliff weigh into your decision?
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>> no. the fiscal gradual slope, you mean? >> whatever it is. >> yes, no, no, i'm not concerned about that. it's in the long-term. plenty of things can happen between now and then and i think a lot of it is hype. >> all right. well, jack, good thing he got that chann that, because starting january 1st, sales tax goes up in california. brad spite or no pitt. melissa? guy? >> please, don't even -- >> guy, can you pass the -- are you done using the barch bag? >> very nice of him to think of his wife. >> got his watch sized. yeah, doesn't everybody, jane? >> that guy's rising above. >> jane, good to see you. >> you know, i have to tell you one thing. somebody said the other day, you know, doesn't brad pitt look awful in that picture for chanel
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number 5? i said, maybe for brad pitt, but not compared to the rest of humanity. >> that's true. >> that's an indictment of that mall, isn't it? >> good point by you, jane. good to see you. coming up next on "fast," the hottest global trade comes and it may be japan. we'll have all the ways to trade it, next. we're all having such a great year in the gulf, we've decided to put aside our rivalry. 'cause all our states are great. and now is when the gulf gets even better. the beaches and waters couldn't be more beautiful. take a boat ride or just lay in the sun. enjoy the wildlife and natural beauty. and don't forget our amazing seafood. so come to the gulf, you'll have a great time. especially in alabama. you mean mississippi.
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that's florida. say louisiana or there's no dessert. brought to you by bp and all of us who call the gulf home.
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the markets usually buzzing about the fiscal cliff, apple's latest moves or what 2013 may bring, but the japanese yen may be the hottest global trade right now. and josh, certainly, jeff brought up this idea a couple of weeks ago in a massive presentation and that really started getting people talking. >> yeah, the idea is all of, you know, everything japan's tried thus far hasn't obviously worked. but now, all of a sudden, they've got a new prime minister, they're seventh in, i don't know, ten weeks, but the idea now is to coordinate monetary policy with fiscal policy, which is what europe should have done, they didn't. it's what the u.s. should do now, we have not. so, the idea is, a lot of yen printing and this should be really bullish for stocks, especially exporters and
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obviously bearish for the yen. and if you look at these charts, that trade has worked out in a tremendous fashion, very recently. >> seventh prime minister in six years, so, we don't overstate the instability in japan. still a high turnover. >> resolving door. by the way, this prime minister is actually coming back for another tour of duty. >> right. >> he served in 2007. >> party kicked out of power three years ago. here's my problem with this trade. everybody is talking about it this week. it's on all the blogs in a lot of the newspapers. the problem with this is, we've seen no less than five false breakouts since the bottom of global markets in march of 2009. the average selloff peak to trough is around 15%. when you get these things wrong, it hurts. so, i would not be rushing to join this trade. >> isn't the risk a little bit less at this point, because they essentially said 90 is the target. they're going out there, saying, this is the target. and this is what the yen will weaken until. so, isn't the down side less than before? because now --
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>> he said -- he said we want an inflation target of 2% and 3% versus 1% and 2% but he hasn't been able to do 2%. not like he can wave a magic wand and get 3% inflation. the target is nice, but again, i think this thing's moved a little bit too far too fast but it's probably a good theme. >> i agree with the inflation point, but there's a yen target now, which is a different story. >> right. and when you look at this 3% move, because, obvious, they didn't have the same holidays that we did just now, this is a very interesting market. the way it's setting up, if they continue to do what josh is talking about. so, if they continue to hammer on this yen, that is going to have an effect on that and the exporters that josh is targeting. >> let's bring in dennis gartman. great to speak with you. the best way to play japan at this point is what in your view, simply short the yen? >> well, actually, i've been short of yen for quite some period of time. i've been short of it for months
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now, six, seven months and it is finally beginning to work. i'm short of yen against dollars, generally. and i mean, u.s. dollars, i'm short yen against canadian dollars, i'm short yen against aussie and the kiwi. i think it's abundantly clear that this new administration has made it very clear it intends to force the bank of japan to supply japanese yen in unlimited terms. these are terms that we have not heard from a -- from monetary authorities or political authorities, i can't remember ever having heard that before. you have to remember, a government has a hard time strengthening its currency, but governments can very easily weaken their currencies, simply by printing them and when the japanese said they are going to print them in an unlimited fashion, you have to believe them. >> also, the other difference here between japan and what's going on for instance here in the united states is that in japan, there are still positive real rates so the bank of japan has the freedom and the leeway to really impact what's going on
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with the yen. >> well, they've made it clear that that's what they intend to do. they're going to take rates to negative numbers over there, mel, before it's done. they have choice and that's what's going to end up happening. they have the exporters with them, at their back, to help them along the line. and you have, i think, a failing demographic circumstances. there's nothing they can do to help the economy itself, other than to help exports. there's nothing they're going to do to help the consumers, who are falling in numbers. they have to continue to export goods and services out of japan and the only way they can do it is by devaluing the yen. i've been trading yen for almost 35 years. i can remember, this is hard to believe, i can remember trading dollar yen at 256 yen to the dollar. and we do have to remember, it was trading 115 yen to the dollar only four years ago. so, when people think that going to 90 yen is a difficult move, no, it's just a small move. >> dennis, they've tried this
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sort of thing about six times since '89. each time, you get a burst-up rally in the stock market and it wanes. why is this time different, if you think it's different, or is this going to be another one of those trading cycles for the japanese politicians? >> i think it's the latter. i think it's -- i think the authorities, the political authorities this time, have given you, as mel said, have given you targets they intend to achieve. they can achieve them. they can create enough yen. they may not be able to get the inflation numbers where they want them to get to, but they can create the yen to try to get the inflation numbers to that level. what do i care whether they can or cannot create inflation, as long as they are going to create more yen. this is the first time we've seen an authority in japan use the term unlimited. that's something, as i said, i can't recall ever having had a monetary person use those terms. >> dennis, short yen against multiple currencies but does
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that need to be long japanese stocks or do you stay away from that? >> i think that's exactly what it's telling you. i think tit's on its way to 15,000 over the next several years. if you don't like trading currencies, go ahead trade that. any period of weakness you get, any 200, 300-point decline. trade that because that's going to be a corollary to the japanese yen itself. >> got it, dennis. happy new year to you. >> thank you, mel. >> dennis gartman. let's hit pops and drops. we got a drop here for amazon, down 4%. guy? >> retail numbers weren't good. this netflix story didn't help. what i would cause, we traded up to 263 in october, sold off down 220, moved back up to 263 last week. i think we're headed down to 240, which is $8 or so from here. that's where you might want to look ate on the long side. >> pop for genworth financial.
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scott? >> earnings estimates have climbed recently. 24 cents a share. that has gotten the stock moving, it's now above seven bucks convincingly. momentum is clearly higher. and in the, well, light volume that we saw today, that momentum really did its job. >> u.s. steel, a pop, move 1%. josh? >> this stock spent the entire year below its 200-day moving average, constantly being sold. that changed on december 14th. now it's acting very well. you've got this upward sloping 50-day moving average coming into play. if you are long this thing, i think you can stick with the trade. >> free-port, anthony. >> people are looking for the long-term here. incredibly good balance sheet. this could trade in the 45, 50 level target. >> a big drop for coach, down 6%. doc? >> well, the numbers that we got, some of the worst growth numbers for the holiday shopping since 2008. certainly hit all the retailers. coach was down 6%. one of the hardest-hit and as
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weiss and terranova were debating it at halftime today, i think this has a 550 number on it before it gets into the mid 50s or 60 next year. >> and we have a pop here for the naked cowboy. here's one way to get some extra cash. the famous naked cowboy is graciously offering up his body to be used as a human billboard. the company called wow body ads will reportedly be placing semipermanent tattoos on the naked cowboy's raw hide starting this month. >> that's outstanding. >> what's a semipermanent tattoo? >> it lasts for awhile. like, a cracker jack, you lick the thing and you slap it on your skin and there for a couple of days. >> are you offering to do that for him? >> no. >> well, you just talked about licking the thing. >> no, the cracker jack thing. >> analogy. >> exactly. >> i just want to make sure. our viewers at home might have been confused. we often see him in the crowd. >> look at the picture.
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>> wait a second! >> hey! >> wait a second. >> as soon as hedge funds are allowed to advertise, that's the first place they're going to go. >> naked cowboy. >> ridonkulous. >> still to come on "fast," why it may be time to part with two winners. hold 'em or fold 'em. and five etfs that could give big dividends to investors in 2013. more "fast money" right after this.
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sometimes it is tough to buy the losers and sell the winners, so, let's play a little hold 'em or fold 'em. >> love this game. >> first up, an all-time high for realolgy. anthony, what do you do? >> this is a largest owner an franchiser of residential broker operations in the u.s. yes, a very big run here but i'm going to stay in the position for now. we're going to hold 'em and not fold. >> you're going to hold them. very good. next up, pitney bowes.
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falling 43% over the past year. this is not a name we often talk about. what do they do? >> they make mail stamps. >> mail stamps? >> yes. >> you know, well -- i digress. >> stamps for the mail? m-a-i-l. >> 15-year low. this is the lowest its been since you were a senior in great neck high school playing the cello and captaining the math team. >> violin. >> so, you asked me what i would do here? you have to continue -- what they've been waiting for, if you're been holding this name. >> you know who holds this? dividend people who don't -- >> what's the div on pitney? >> it's big. it makes all the lists of dividend achievers. >> because the price goes up. irlt it's a 14% dive geidend. >> i'm not sure what you've been waiting for. historic move over the last four years in which the stock did not perform. i'm hard pressed to believe -- >> stamps are coming back, though.
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>> something's coming back. >> that's what the post office is holding. >> fold them. should have done that a long time ago. there are just three trading days left in the year. let's look ahead to your best etf bets of the year. joining us is matt hogan, editor of the exchange traded funds report. ma matt, good to e so you. we just had a long discussion about japan, how you short yen what is the best etf to express this view? >> yeah, actually a beautiful etf just for that, it's dxj is the ticker. the wisdom tree japan hedge currency etf. the problem with buying a traditional japanese equity etf is, you are inherently long the yen, which we all know is going to be driven down. dxj gives you that good upside exposure but shorts out the yen exposure. you get the best of both words. definitely a solid pick for next year. >> and your other four picks for 2013, they have to do with the
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merging markets. that seems to be the hot trend right now. let's talk about the one that tracks debt. >> i think this is a no brainer. you get better balance sheets, better growth and a significantly higher yield. i mean significantly. if you look at a u.s. government bond etf yielding less than 1%, this emerging market local current sill etf is yielding 5%. i think this is a trade, probably not just for next year, but for the next ten years. >> right, you've got the iemg, the equity side of the emerging market story. you also have a china etf and most people when they talk about that, talk about fxi, but that's not the one you're talking about. >> both of these are story of better new etfs. so, gxc is a better etf than fxi. fxi covers the 25 largest chinese securities.
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people should move their money out of one and into the other. the same thing is true on immg, the new i shares etf. significantly lower fee than eem, the big $46 billion. but unlike eem, it includes small cap stocks, and if you look over the past three months, it's outperformed eem by 3%. 90% of investors are in the wrong etf. they should shift into one that has small cap exposure. >> matt, your last pick is the global x super dividend fund. great to see you. >> glad to be here. >> matt hogan. in terms of -- you like any of those etfs, josh? >> yeah, one emerging market that he didn't mention, which i prefer, that's a lower volatility, higher dividend. i agree with him. you don't want to be just in the raw index because you end up getting a ton of huge banks and oil companies, most of which are
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state run. you don't watt to down shift into smaller caps, capture more of the middle class consumer that way. coming up next, traders dish out their top trades for the new year, but first, unusual activity. not quite paranormal, but enough to raise some eye browns in the auto sector. what we're following, ahead on "fast." with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want. fully customize it for your trading process -- from thought to trade, on every screen. and all in real time. which makes it just like having your own trading floor, right at your fingertips. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. try our easy-to-use scottrader streaming quotes. it's another reason more investors are saying... [ all ] i'm with scottrade.
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let's hit some unusual activity that dr. j spotted in today's session. car makers? >> yeah. ford. and this one's been hitting pretty consistently and if you've ridden it, folks, you've had a nice ride. average turnover is about 75,000 contracts. traded 300,000 today. and this was a nothing day and it's not dividend flips. in other words, they're not just buying these to get a dividend. stock was up 3%. they're betting on upside all the way to at least '13 in february. so -- we're following that smart money in ford. >> anthony, what do you make of ford versus gm now that gm looks luke it's going to get the government off of its back? >> i still like the ford story better than gm, because of the management team. also, i do think that the product line they're coming out
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with is a superior product line. look for the lincoln brand to resurge in 2013. >> so, a lot of people wanted to make the comparison between gm and aig in terms of being favored by the hedge fund community. they're not apples to apples? >> not a fair comparison. gm is now without al ly, their financing unit and aig is more leverage able to what's going on with the felt. and i think that gm, here, has an okay to decent management team but i would still go with ford and the valuation is a little bit more compelling, given its growth. >> right. let's hit today's options action, of course, scott nations, we've been talking about the fiscal cliff. you talk about that, talk about going over the cliff, sequestration and defense spending cuts. what did you see today in the defense names?dynamics, which is just going to be in the cross hairs, we saw somebody roll their productive puts up. we've been talking about put
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buying in all of these names and in general dynamics, we saw somebody roll up from the january 62 half puts to the 65 puts. so, they bought that spread, they bout the jan half spread 12,000 times and they rolled their puts up to the 65 strike. they are now long the 65 puts and they're long in an effective price of about $1.15. meaning they are protected down to $63.85. that's quite a ways from where the stock closed today, but you know, if the fiscal cliff gets any messier, then we can be there pretty quickly. >> yeah. guy, this was your trade that you recommended, should we reach a deal on the cliff. monster run, all the defense stocks since the beginning of november. >> i traded on the long side. i understand why people would be buying protective puts here. i still think this is going to be one of those, you know, sell the rumor, which people have, and buy the news, which people have not yet. these stocks have clearly underperformed. i think if there's any clarity whatsoever, though i think there will be -- they'll be in the cross hairs, i think the stock
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will go higher. >> check out the show and its new facebook page, facebook.com/optionsaction. no crystal balls here, but grit and determination. what our traders are betting on in 2013. first, we head to twitter and reveal your stock tweets for the new year. back after this. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade.
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all right, it is time to trade your tweets. >> well, melissa, as we wrap up 2012, we asked twitter to tweet in their stock picks for the new year. let's see if they are winning trades. shiraz is picking facebook, saying it will get back to its ipo price before the end of 2013. it seems every other month facebook is finding new ways to make money. scott nations, do you agree? >> i don't think so. i don't know how you pay $35 a share for this stock now. but if the company can start making, say, 80 cents a share annually, then at the current pe, you're back at $38. >> all right, next tweet. verizon is the pick. two main points here, more people will upgrade their plans
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to use mobile devices on 4g and it's not at&t. do you agree? >> i do like verizon, but not just because of the wireless service. i just think they have a great high yielding stock. look for a dividend increase with a 470 yield and this interest rate environment this is a safe haven. so, it's not super correlated to the overall market. >> okay, let's now hit the other traders with their top picks for 2013. josh brown? what do you say? >> yeah, i'll follow up with what matt said earlier about emerging markets. my vehicle of choice is dvye. this is a new product, but essentially it's designed to own 100 of the best dividend plays. it's about 50%, 60% mid cap and small cap. this gets right to the sweet spot of the emerging middle class. and the other thing i like about this, there's very little brick. china is like 5%. i don't want a lot of russia and br sil. what i want is taiwan, poland, i want some of these other
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emerging countries and that's what i get. >> guy? >> think you have some sort of conclusion, this fiscal cliff thing, which will send the s&p higher. that's your opportunity to get long volatility in any way you choose. a lot of people will buy puts on that. i wouldn't be in the call selling mode. i would not be surprised in the early part of 2013, first couple of months to see the vicks north of 125. >> anthony, you're going to europe? >> i think so. major restructuring story as the banks delever. that's our theme. >> and doc j, quickly? >> wmw. i think they start getting big time orders in the early part of this year. >> okay, sima, thank you. first move tomorrow when we come right back. when you have diabetes...
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